Planning more new nuclear reactors than thought before puts a new question in front of the world nuclear community

17.08.2006

Planning more new nuclear reactors than thought before puts a new question in front of the world nuclear community – How much uranium can each source supply to fill in the growing demand?

At the WNA 2004 symposium I spoke about Kazakhstan's plan to produce 15 thousand tons a year from 2010, although detailed program was not finalized at that time. We were still looking for investors and partners. Today we are confident to have secured proper material flows, human resources, and equipped with financing schemes. The plan is being gradually realized.

But, we regard the 15 thousand tons Program as just a first stage of our long term plan, seeking integrated development of reserves. Availability of proven resources already provides us firm ground for stable production of 25 thousand tons per year through 2050.


 
To describe our plans in a structured manner, we divided all Kazakh uranium mines into three groups:

1 Operating mines, in red on the screen (132,765mtu)
2 Mines Under construction, in blue (639,820mtu), and
3 Potential mines, which we consider profitable at current prices, in green (868,423 mtu)
4 The remaining deposits are deemed uneconomic today, and we disregard them at this time (mainly provinces 5 and 6).

There are 129 known uranium deposits in 6 uranium provinces in Kazakhstan, accounting for 1 million 690 thousand tons of uranium. Out of which 1 point 2 million tons - ISL suitable, known as the cheapest and nature-friendly method.

 

9 currently operating mines are located in Southern Kazakhstan (uranium provinces 1 and 2). And one conventional mine in the North (province 3).

 

In May 2006 Eastern Mynkuduk was launched, the latest of Operating Mines. It is the first mine with capacity of 1 thousand tons per year.

 

These mines will continue producing more than 5 thousand tons a year until 2021, and then decline due to depletion of resources.

Production of these operating mines, as we unfortunately have to say, is already committed.

 








In response to growing demand of the world nuclear industry, Kazatomprom developed a program to launch 12 new mines. 2 ISL mies will start production later this year; next year – 5 new mines will start, including joint projects with Cameco, Areva, Tenex, and Urasia. 4 mines will start in 2008, plus one new conventional mine in the North.

Intensive work is underway to support these new mines. We are extending industrial infrastructure, building our own Sulfuric Acid Plant, new roads, and power transmission lines.

Optimizing the stuff number and labor efficiency, we have established so-called service-centers, providing individual mines with procurement, geophysics, drilling, transport and communication services, and accounting. So that only mining experts remain at the mining site.

 
Production from these new mines will reach 12 thousand tons a year in 2010, and 16,5 thousand - from 2014, and will continue at this level until 2030th.

As you can see on this chart, launching the mines under construction, will increase the production to 18 thousand tons per year in 2010, and the peak production of operating mines and mines under construction will be reached in 2015.

In order to ensure stable uranium production volumes in the long run, it is necessary to involve additional resources, which are luckily present in Kazakhstan.

Therefore, Kazatomprom began its long term production development plan and further construction of new mines in Kazakhstan, as we call “potential” mines.

 

According to this long term program we plan to start additional mines.

The upper side of the graph represents potential supply source from Kazakhstan, subject to demand and attractive economics.

Realization of the plans gives us the following picture.

 

Kazakhstan will be producing around 27 thousand tons natural uranium per year from 2015 to 2050.

 According to our estimates, only after year 2030 significant investments will be required to sustain then current production level, also investments in conventional mines.

Implementing our plans through 2050, we will extract around 1 point 2 million tons.

With the realization of numerous nuclear programs by many countries, the same or even greater level of uranium production will be required after 2050.

Therefore, during 2015-2040 Kazatomprom will invest over 220 million USD in uranium exploration work in the areas you can see on the map.

Based on our past experience we expect not less than 400 thousand tons additional uranium resources, which will allow for sustaining our production level of 27 thousand tons until year 2090.

 

 I tried to show you the whole picture of what we are doing, and what we can do. On this chart we want to show contribution of Kazakhstan to the global uranium supply.

We have no doubts that we will implement our plans, as stated above for Operating and Under-construction Mines.

Additional production is possible, but is subject to demand and good economics.

Unfortunately, the deficit is still there, threatening ambitious declared plans for development of nuclear power in the World.

We hope that the other uranium producers from Canada, Australia and other countries will also mobilize to give maximum output, so that we are not creating a bottle-neck in development of nuclear industry in general.

 


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